Against the Spread Betting (ATS) Explained
Against the spread betting (ATS) is one of the most popular and engaging types of sports bets. We’ll break down everything you need to know about ATS betting, providing insights, examples, and strategies to help you excel.
What is Against the Spread Betting (ATS)?
Against the spread betting (ATS) is a way to bet on sports where you predict if a team will perform better or worse relative to the point spread set by oddsmakers. A point spread is a number set to determine the expected difference in score between the favorite and the underdog of a game, accounting for the differences in skill between teams or players.
To win a bet against the spread, the underdog must win the game outright or lose by fewer points than the point spread. This is different from betting “with the spread”, which involves wagering on the favorite to win by more points than the point spread.
How Does Point Spread Betting Work?
Point spread betting revolves around the point spread, which is a number set by oddsmakers that represents the expected margin of victory. Bettors can choose to bet on either the favorite to win by more than the spread or the underdog to lose by less than the spread (or win outright).
Betting with the Spread
When betting with the spread, you back the favorite, meaning the team needs to win by more than the point spread for your wager to succeed. For example:
- Team A (-6.5): To cover the spread, Team A must win by 7 points or more.
Betting Against the Spread
Betting against the spread involves wagering on the underdog. The underdog can lose the game, but as long as they lose by fewer points than the spread, your bet is successful. For example:
- Team B (+6.5): To cover the spread, Team B can either win outright or lose by 6 points or fewer.
Point spreads commonly use half-points to avoid ties, also known as “pushes.”
Why is ATS Betting Popular?
Against the spread betting is popular because it balances the competition between mismatched teams, giving bettors who prefer the underdog a chance to find value in the game. The inclusion of the point spread means that even games with a heavy favorite can be exciting, as underdogs can still cover the spread and result in winning bets.
Factors That Influence the Point Spread
Point spreads are not random; they are carefully calculated numbers based on a variety of factors. Some of these factors include:
- Team Performance: Oddsmakers analyze both recent performance and long-term trends, such as a team’s win-loss record and scoring consistency, to determine expectations.
- Player Injuries and Availability: Key players missing from the lineup can drastically alter team strength and influence point spreads.
- Game Location: Teams often perform better at home, commonly called a home-field advantage, due to familiarity with the environment and fan support, while traveling teams may face disadvantages.
- Public Betting Trends: Heavy betting on one team can cause oddsmakers to adjust the spread to balance wagers and limit their liability.
- Weather: Factors like rain, snow, wind, or extreme temperatures can slow games down or favor certain play styles, affecting scoring.
- Time and Rest Between Games: Teams with more rest or fewer back-to-back games are often seen as having an advantage, while fatigue can hinder performance.
How the Spread Can Change Over Time
Point spreads can fluctuate leading up to a game due to several dynamic factors. For example, if a star player is injured, the oddsmakers might adjust the spread to reflect the team’s reduced chances of performing well. Similarly, weather updates, such as predictions of heavy rain or wind, can lead to adjustments since such conditions often lower scoring expectations. Betting volume is another influential factor; if a large number of people place bets on one team, oddsmakers may shift the spread to balance the action and minimize their risk.
Examples of Betting Against the Spread
Against the spread betting is often best understood through examples. Remember, betting “against the spread” means that you win your wager if the underdog wins the game or loses by less than the point spread.
NFL Game Example
Imagine a matchup where the Kansas City Chiefs are matched against the Denver Broncos:
- Chiefs: -7.5
- Broncos: +7.5
The Chiefs are the favorite of the game, which is why they have a negative point spread. The Broncos are the underdog, hence the positive point spread. In order for you to win a bet against the spread, the Broncos would need to “cover the spread”, meaning they win the game outright or lose by less than 7 points.
NBA Game Example
Consider a game where the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Golden State Warriors:
- Lakers: -4.5
- Warriors: +4.5
The Lakers are the favorite of this game, indicated by a negative point spread. The Warriors are the underdog of this game, indicated by a positive point spread. To win a bet against the spread for this game, the Warriors would need to “cover the spread” by either winning outright or losing by less than 4 points.
What Happens When You Win, Lose, or Push?
Point spread bets have three different outcomes, a win, a loss, or a push:
- Win: Your bet is successful if your team covers the spread. This means that if you bet with the spread, you win if the favorite team wins by more than the point spread. If you bet against the spread, you win if the underdog team wins the game outright or loses by less than the point spread.
- Lose: Your bet loses if your team fails to cover the spread. For those that bet with the spread, this means that the favorite did not win by enough points or they lost the game entirely. For those that bet against the spread, this means that the underdog lost by more points than the point spread.
- Push: A push occurs when the margin of victory equals the spread (e.g., spread is -3, and the favorite wins by exactly 3 points). In the context of an against the spread bet, this means that neither the favorite nor the underdog “covered the spread.” As a result, the sportsbook considers the bet void, and your original stake is refunded, making it as though the wager was never placed.
Pros and Cons of Against the Spread Betting
When deciding whether to bet against the spread, it’s important to weigh the potential benefits and drawbacks. While against the spread betting can add depth and excitement to wagering, it also requires careful analysis and understanding of the game. Here are key advantages and disadvantages of this bet:
Pros of ATS Betting
- Levels the playing field between mismatched teams.
- Offers more nuanced betting opportunities.
- Enhances game excitement by focusing on margins.
Cons of ATS Betting
- Requires deeper analysis than moneyline betting.
- Vig (house edge) can eat into profits over time.
- Spreads can be affected by unpredictable variables.
Tips for Betting Against the Spread
Against the spread betting can be both exciting and rewarding when approached with the right strategy. To maximize your chances of success, it’s essential to consider key tips and avoid common pitfalls. The following pointers will help you build a strong foundation for ATS betting.
Key Tips
- Research Team Statistics: Understand each team’s strengths and weaknesses.
- Monitor Injuries: Key player absences can drastically impact spreads.
- Track Line Movements: Significant shifts may indicate insider knowledge.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Stick to a consistent betting strategy.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Overreacting to Public Opinion: Don’t blindly follow the crowd.
- Ignoring Key Factors: Weather, injuries, and matchups matter.
- Betting with Emotion: Stay objective and disciplined.
ATS Betting in Different Sports
Against the spread betting isn’t limited to just one sport. In fact, it’s a versatile betting format that applies across various sports, each with its unique dynamics. ATS betting works differently across sports like football, basketball, and others, with unique factors shaping the experience in each.
NFL and Football ATS Betting
ATS betting is highly popular in football due to the frequent close games and the deeply ingrained culture of betting in both the NFL and college football. The structure of football games, with fewer total points scored compared to other sports, makes point spreads particularly impactful and thrilling for bettors. Factors like injuries, home-field advantage, and team rivalries often play a significant role in determining the spreads.
Basketball ATS Betting (NBA & NCAAB)
In basketball, point spreads are dynamic because of the high-scoring nature of the game and the frequent momentum shifts. Bettors must account for factors such as team pace, individual player matchups, and recent performance trends. With games occurring frequently, fatigue and travel schedules can also influence spreads, especially in back-to-back scenarios or long road trips.
Other Sports with ATS Betting Options
ATS-style bets are also available in sports like hockey, baseball, and soccer, though they are often referred to by different names such as puck lines, run lines, or goal spreads. In these sports, spreads are typically smaller, reflecting the lower-scoring nature of the games. Additionally, specific factors such as pitching matchups in baseball or goaltender performance in hockey play a major role in how the spread is determined.
How to Calculate Spread Payouts
Spread payouts depend on the odds associated with the bet, which typically have a standard vig (house edge) of -110 for ATS bets. This means you must wager $110 to win $100, effectively reflecting the sportsbook’s commission. However, odds can vary based on betting volume, market conditions, and sportsbook policies.
Understanding these odds and their implications helps bettors make informed decisions. For instance, identifying sportsbooks with reduced vig, such as -105 lines, can significantly improve long-term profitability. Additionally, managing payout structures effectively ensures you balance risk with potential returns, especially when betting on games with tight spreads.
Advanced Concepts in ATS Betting
Advanced concepts in against the spread betting build upon foundational knowledge to give bettors an edge in their strategy. By diving into these deeper insights, bettors can better understand the mechanics of spreads and odds, recognize patterns, and identify opportunities that less experienced players might overlook.
Vig (House Edge)
The vig is the sportsbook’s commission on bets, typically set at -110 for ATS betting. This means bettors wager $110 to win $100, giving sportsbooks a built-in edge. However, vig rates can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Key Numbers in Point Spreads
Another advanced concept in against the spread betting is “key numbers,” which are the most common margins of victory in sports like football. For example, in the NFL, spreads of 3 and 7 points are particularly significant because games frequently end with those margins. Recognizing key numbers helps bettors identify spreads with higher or lower implied risk.
Reverse Line Movement
Reverse line movement occurs when the point spread moves in the opposite direction of public betting trends. This often indicates sharp (professional) money influencing the line. Understanding reverse line movement can help bettors align with experienced players and potentially find valuable opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions
If you’re new to ATS betting or even an experienced bettor, you may have questions about how it all works. Below, we’ve compiled answers to some of the most common questions to help you navigate the nuances of against the spread betting with confidence.
What Does “Covering the Spread” Mean?
Covering the spread means a team has performed well enough relative to the point spread to make a bettor’s wager successful.
What Happens If the Spread is a Tie?
If the margin of victory equals the spread, the bet is a push, and the stake is refunded.
Can You Profit Long-Term with ATS Betting?
Yes, but it requires skill, discipline, and a deep understanding of sports betting dynamics. Consistent research and strategic bankroll management are essential.
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